Research Methodology
Hemlock Collective employs rigorous forensic analysis techniques to document patterns of democratic capture. Our methodology combines software engineering principles with political science research standards.
Core Model: Theory of Capture
The Theory of Capture provides the analytical foundation for all documentation on this site. It maps how democratic institutions are systematically converted into instruments of minority rule through coordinated capture mechanisms. The model flows from Inputs (demand signals and enabling conditions) through a Permission Structure (legitimation mechanisms) to Instruments (the six vectors of capture: Law, Personnel, Funds, Information, Narrative, Violence), producing Outputs (Minority Rule and Oligarchic Extraction) that feed back into the system through self-reinforcing loops.
THEORY OF CAPTURE
A Systems Model of Democratic Degradation
Read as: Demand → Activation → Conversion → Outputs → Feedback Loops
INPUTS: Enabling Conditions
POLARIZATION
- Affective sorting / tribal ID
- Media fragmentation
- Zero-sum framing
CRISIS (real or manufactured)
- Economic precarity
- Security threat narrative
- Cultural displacement anxiety
INSTITUTIONAL EROSION
- Declining institutional trust
- Norm degradation / elite defection
- Prior capture-cycle residue
Some inputs are downstream products of earlier capture cycles (see Feedback Loops).
INSTRUMENTS OF CAPTURE
Mutual Reinforcement: Each instrument enables and amplifies the others
LAW
- Selective enforcement / non-enforcement
- Remedies + review disablement
- Removal/appointments
- Immunity & clemency
PERSONNEL
- Loyalty tests / purges
- Schedule F conversion
- Acting appointments
FUNDS
- Impoundment
- Conditional spending
- Contract steering
- Grant defunding
INFORMATION
- Collection halt / sabotage
- Access denial / classification
- Surveillance
NARRATIVE
- State propaganda
- Media intimidation
- Platform capture
VIOLENCE
- State: Militarization, Detention
- Stochastic: Intimidation, Vigilantism
OUTPUTS: Capture Products
MINORITY RULE
- Electoral lock-in (suppression, gerrymandering)
- Counter-majoritarian capture (courts, Senate)
- Policy decoupling from majority will
- Structural lock-in / hard-to-reverse rules
OLIGARCHIC EXTRACTION
- Regulatory capture
- Tax arbitrage / public asset transfer
- Rent extraction (health, housing, edu, energy)
- Wealth concentration acceleration
Minority rule provides political protection for extraction; extraction funds political protection.
FEEDBACK LOOPS (arcs flow right-to-left from Outputs back to earlier stages)
LOOP 1: IMPUNITY
Outputs → Instruments
No prosecution / clemency → Emboldens actors
"Transgression becomes precedent; precedent becomes entitlement."
LOOP 2: EXIT
Outputs → Permission Structure
Brain drain / capital flight → Weakened opposition
"Those who could resist leave; those who remain accommodate."
LOOP 3: EPISTEMIC COLLAPSE
Outputs → Inputs
Information destruction + narrative dominance → Cannot measure harm → Cannot mobilize
"You cannot fight what you cannot name or count. Hardest-to-reverse loop."
Figure: Theory of Capture — Systems Diagram. A model of democratic system conversion into instruments of minority rule and oligarchic extraction. Read left-to-right as causal chain (Demand → Activation → Conversion → Outputs), then trace feedback loops showing system stabilization.
Canonical: /diagrams/theory-of-capture/
1. On coordination: This model does not require conspiracy; systemic outcomes emerge from partial coordination plus convergent incentives.
2. On reversibility: Each feedback loop raises reversal costs and lowers detection probability. Epistemic collapse is the hardest-to-reverse loop: destroyed measurement infrastructure makes harm undocumentable.
3. On endogeneity: The system is self-amplifying. Today's outputs become tomorrow's inputs.
Core Framework: Drift-Design Loop
Our analytical framework identifies two key patterns:
Drift: Gradual institutional erosion through norm violations, procedural shortcuts, and accumulated precedent changes that shift baselines of acceptable behavior.
Design: Systematic capture through deliberate structural modifications, personnel installations, and rule changes that embed partisan advantage into institutional architecture.
These patterns often reinforce each other in cascading feedback loops.
Case File Standards
Each case file must meet the following criteria:
Documentation Requirements
- Primary Sources: Direct links to official documents, statements, legal filings
- Archival Preservation: All sources backed up via archive.is or similar
- Attribution: Clear sourcing with date stamps and context
- Version Control: Changes tracked with explanatory notes
Qualification Standards
A documented event qualifies as a “case” when it demonstrates:
- Clear deviation from established norms or procedures
- Potential for institutional precedent or structural impact
- Verifiable through primary source documentation
- Significance beyond individual political disagreement
Analysis Structure
Each case file includes:
- Background: Historical context and relevant precedents
- Documentation: Primary source evidence with archival links
- Analysis: Pattern identification and institutional implications
- Legal Implications: Potential precedent-setting or structural impacts
Taxonomies
Cases are categorized by domain:
- Executive: Presidential power, executive branch independence
- Judicial: Court capture, legal precedent manipulation
- Voting: Electoral system integrity, access restrictions
- Epistemic: Information ecosystem capture, truth verification
Update Protocols
- Ongoing Cases: Updated as significant developments occur
- Status Tracking: Cases marked as ongoing, resolved, or monitoring
- Correction Policy: Errors corrected with transparent notation
- Community Input: Source suggestions reviewed and verified
Quality Assurance
- Multi-Source Verification: Claims backed by multiple independent sources
- Legal Review: Consultation on precedent and statutory interpretation
- Academic Standards: Peer review by researchers where applicable
- Transparency: Methodology changes documented and explained
Limitations and Disclaimers
This research represents analysis and documentation, not legal advice. Case assessments reflect observed patterns and potential implications, not definitive legal conclusions. We encourage independent verification of sources and welcome corrections.
Citation Guidelines
When citing Hemlock Collective case files:
Oh, Jason. "Case ID: [CASE-ID]" Hemlock Collective. [Date]. [URL]. Archived: [Archive URL].
This page is currently a placeholder and will be expanded with detailed technical specifications, sourcing standards, and analytical frameworks.